Marin County intimately felt what the rest of the country has been feeling this past quarter; a drastic slow down in sales, sales prices deflating, supply of homes on-market rising, and time on-market to sell homes is increasing. All reflections of a shifting market.

Sales in September '22 were down 32% compared to September '21.

Days on market (time to sell a home) are up 16%.

Months supply of homes on market is UP 30%.

We've been heavily accustomed to a strong sellers market, but recent macro-economic events have swung Marin into a more normalized market comparative to traditional markets all over the country, if not putting power in buyer's hands. If you've been waiting to buy a home, now is seemingly the best time to buy property since '09.

The Condominium Market

Q3 saw 6x total sales at 876k, within 10% of the yearly average sales price of $988k. However, the two previous quarters saw an average of 26x sales per Q, signaling a massive demand decrease. Traditionally, the condominium market is the first to feel the pinch of rising rates as most condominium buyers are significantly more rate sensitive than median & luxury buyers.

The Median Market

Median homes, indicative of Marin's ability to weather any storm, proved themselves once again. 60x sales averaging $2.385M, just slightly down from the yearly average of $2.48M. Expect turn-key homes in median markets to continue to be in high demand.

The Luxury Market

8x luxury estates sold in Q3, averaging $5.97M per home, which is up from the Q1&Q2 average of $5.04M. As typical with 1st-Tier Bay Area real estate markets, there will always be buyer's with capital willing to spend on top of the market properties in Mill Valley.

Projecting Ahead To Next Month/Quarter

With interest rates rising seemingly month after month, and Thanksgiving & The Holidays on the horizon, Q4 doesn’t project well as the turn of this market.

Instead, given the current trends, Q4 should be viewed by buyers as one of the most opportunistic times to buy property in the past decade. Most seller’s opting to try and sell in this market are doing so out of necessity, and it’s worth remembering that most sellers have seen 50-60% appreciation over the past 5 years which allows for significant wiggle room on final sales price should buyers get the opportunity to negotiate rather than a be in a multiple offer situation.

I anticipate the Fall market to run from October 1st through ~ Thanksgiving, then we’ll see a significant lull in listings on the market, sales volume, etc.

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