Q1 was down slightly from 2021 numbers in Mill Valley, which seems understandable given the drastic price increases we saw last year, although buyer attention remains at an all-time high.

The condominium market stabilized to an average of $900k in Q4 '21 & Q1 '22, after a rapid growth spurt leading to some believing the market was overvalued.

We're still seeing 20+ disclosure requests and a handful of strong offers for most homes in the median price point. Turn-key is selling at a lightning pace.

The luxury market saw a supply drop over the turn of the new year, with only 8 homes selling in Q1. Although the median price of those 8 was significantly lower than the '21 median for this market segment, the $/foot for these homes actually increased.

The Condominium Market

The condominium in Mill Valley continued the trending correction from Q4 of '21. The general consensus is that the condo market became overvalued in mid '21, soaring from pre-pandemic levels in excess of 40%. While we are still drastically up in 2019, the median has seemed to stabilize around 900k over the past 2 quarters.

The Median Market

For the purposes of defining the line between the median market & the luxury market, $1,000,000 above or below the median at the time of this report is considered the market for a median home, whereas anything $1M above or greater tends to correlate better to the luxury market.

This market segment is as hot as any pocket in the country. While Q1 showed a minimal deficit from 2021 levels, the demand is still sky-high. The supply for median single-family homes has been almost non-existent, or at least it feels that way from a buyer's perspective.

Days on market are still low, and demand for turn-key starter homes is through the roof. Expect to see Spring ‘22 bring about a spike in sales activity as listings hit the market.

The Luxury Market

The luxury segment of Mill Valley saw one of the steepest fall offs from 2021, down ~ $900,000 from '21 averages, but the average price per foot has actually increased.

Again, due to a seriously low supply, luxury buyers are grabbing at the best available, which isn't much. I would anticipate a jump back toward a median of $5M for a luxury home in Q2/Q3 of this year.

Projecting Ahead To Next Month/Quarter

It's hard to fathom a slow down on the horizon, but it seems to be nearing. With the median housing market racing to $2.5M, I wouldn't be surprised if those buyers continually getting beaten out in the single family market turn to the condominium market, and seek premium condominiums in top-tier locations. The single family home market Bay Area-wide is exploding, continually pushing 20 to 30% above previously recorded highs, and in some cases more than 40%.

There are certain events on the horizon that have the power to decrease the speed of growth; rate hikes or WW3 for example, but given the modern real estate asset (ability to short term lease, find nightly tenants at sky-high rates, etc) is so much more functional than bubbles-past, it's hard to define if it will slow down in 2022.