The Marin real estate market shifted into new territory in Q1, shedding the weight of the drastic rate-hike market and re-balancing itself into a more normalized market comparative to the rest of the country.

Typical markets see homes sitting for 21-30 days before selling, with the best turnkey properties being the ones attracting the most attention and selling above asking. Although Marin has seldom operated in parallel with 'normal', it seems we're now getting a taste of it.

Properties priced right & presented well are still moving quickly, but anything less-than turnkey, especially if it's priced inline with a 3% rate market rather than today's rates, DOM will accumulate. With higher rates we are seeing monthly payment affordability issues & pricing needs to reflect this.

Median Market

The average price for a property in Kentfield's single-family market dropped by ~ $800,000 in Q1 '23 and took three times as long to sell. With only 3 sales and a handful of listings available all quarter, it's hard to tie the value drop to desirability,

Buyers are much more hesitant to pull the trigger and buy homes now than they were before, which aligns with the trend of affordability issues coupled with sellers having 'pre-6% rate market' value expectations.

Luxury Market

No luxury properties sold in Kentfield in Q1 23.

Yes; they're weren't many homes listed.

Yes, the luxury market varies quite a bit between property type and size.

The fact is there are significantly fewer buyers for $3m+ properties Bay Area-wide, and those buyers tend to concentrate closely on traditional luxury pockets when the market shifts. Buyers at this price point are assumed to be more cash dominant, which is true, but savvy buyers  leverage their assets with borrowed capital, and the cost of that capital has jumped, limiting the demand for expensive homes.

The general theme of macro-economic activity is more-of-the-same. We're seeing a steady diet of stress events like Silicon Valley Bank's collapse and the sell off of others, First Republic flailed for a moment which caused the entire real estate market to hold it's breath (FR is San Francisco's leading residential mortgage lender), and tech companies are laying off employees and axing non-revenue generating business activity, all typical during periods of tightening.

Also, the fed raises rates again at the turn of Q2 by 25bp and plans of doing this a few more times. However, and this is a BIG however, California is a sunshine state. People don't go to open houses in the rain (we're ridiculous, yes). With the sun back out, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a flurry of activity.

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If you have any questions, text me.

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