Q4 in Kentfield

Q1 will set the tone for the coming year more so than any other quarter in recent memory. The entirety of the real estate community is sitting on the edge of our seats eagerly hoping for a strong sales quarter and a renewed confidence that we've seen the worst of the correction. With rates already decreasing toward the tail end of Q4, it seems like we've already experienced the bottom of the market.

I could easily see a full year of price stagnancy in 2023, with property values staying mostly level with the prices we're seeing now, down < 10% from the Q1 "22 peaks. Prices across Marin were appreciating at 15-20% year over year during COVID, which was an absolutely absurd pace.

We are now in a buyer's market. There are more opportunities in the market for the savvy than ever before.

The Median Market

The median market in Kentfield took a hit in Q4 with prices dropping by $600,000 on average. Traditionally we see a fall-off in the final quarter of the year, but his years’ trends suggest a stronger narrative; buyer affordability and demand are significantly below where they have been in recent years. The price per foot buyers is willing to pay for homes dropped from $1,139/foot to $894/foot.

With decreasing affordability, buyers are shifting their focus heavily to turn-key. Additional costs after purchase as undesirable in this market as they ever have been, and it's in a homeowner’s best interests to take the time to update & enhance their properties ahead of time to ensure a turn-key property is presented to the market.

The Luxury Market

The luxury market for a home in Kentfield, unfortunately, got pummeled in Q4, with prices dropping by almost $2,800,000 compared to the yearly average in 2022. Although only 2 sales were recorded in Q4 compared to 8 all year, the unspoken data point missed here is the sheer number of homes that didn't sell or were pulled from the market. It took almost 2 months longer to sell a luxury home last quarter, too.

The Bay Area's luxury market as a whole plummeted in Q3&4 as macroeconomic conditions wreaked havoc on the real estate market. One of the biggest drivers for luxury home sales has traditionally been proximity to San Francisco, but the drastic decline in office desirability, heightened WFH culture, and an increase on cost-of--borrowed capital has deterred buyers from pulling the trigger.

Projecting Ahead To Next Month/Quarter

Q1 will set the tone for the coming year more so than any other quarter in recent memory. The entirety of the real estate community is sitting on the edge of our seats eagerly hoping for a strong sales quarter and a renewed confidence that we've seen the worst of the correction. With rates already decreasing toward the tail end of Q4, it seems like we've already experienced the bottom of the market.

I could easily see a full year of price stagnancy in 2023, with property values staying mostly level with the prices we're seeing now, down < 10% from the Q1 "22 peaks. Prices across Marin were appreciating at 15-20% year over year during COVID, which was an absolutely absurd pace.

We are now in a buyer's market. There are more opportunities in the market for the savvy than ever before.