The Marin real estate market shifted into new territory in Q1, shedding the weight of the drastic rate-hike market and re-balancing itself into a more normalized market comparative to the rest of the country.

Typical markets see homes sitting for 21-30 days before selling, with the best turnkey properties being the ones attracting the most attention and selling above asking. Although Marin has seldom operated in parallel with 'normal', it seems we're now getting a taste of it.

Properties priced right & presented well are still moving quickly, but anything less-than turnkey, especially if it's priced inline with a 3% rate market rather than today's rates, DOM will accumulate. With higher rates we are seeing monthly payment affordability issues & pricing needs to reflect this.

Median Market

The median single-family home market in Fairfax was the epitome of slow; 4 sales in Q1 vs an average of ~ 20 sales per quarter in 2022, aka down 80% in volume.

Unfortunately, Fairfax is a low volume & low demand market compared to its neighbors, given the additional 10 - 15 minutes from 101 to access San Francisco and destinations north, the buyer pool has shown to favor more accessibility and larger markets like San Rafael. Higher volume markets see values swing faster than low, catering to more buyers getting good deals.

The average price for a home in Fairfax has started to 400k dive, but the time it's taking to sell has sped up quickly for turnkey, well-priced homes.

Luxury Market

There were no luxury property sales in Fairfax in Q1. Typically this market segment only sees 1 or 2 sales per quarter, making this less of an anomaly than it seems.

The general theme of macro-economic activity is more-of-the-same. We're seeing a steady diet of stress events like Silicon Valley Bank's collapse and the sell off of others, First Republic flailed for a moment which caused the entire real estate market to hold it's breath (FR is San Francisco's leading residential mortgage lender), and tech companies are laying off employees and axing non-revenue generating business activity, all typical during periods of tightening.

Also, the fed raises rates again at the turn of Q2 by 25bp and plans of doing this a few more times. However, and this is a BIG however, California is a sunshine state. People don't go to open houses in the rain (we're ridiculous, yes). With the sun back out, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a flurry of activity.

Learn more about Fairfax

If you have any questions, text me.

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